While China and India are implementing anti-growth measures to curb inflation, it looks like Thailand ? without the need for such inflation-fighting measures ? may actually outperform its larger rivals.
The dichotomy forming between these economies is growing. And with hedge funds paying close attention to this trend, you should, too. Find out why in today?s video.
Sincerely,
Monty
P.S. For specific low-risk and high-probability trade opportunities in the markets that are on the move, take my Million-Dollar Rapid Growth Portfolio service for a risk-free test-drive today!
Video Transcript
Hi, this is Monty Agarwal for Uncommon Wisdom Daily.
When most investors talk about Asia, they lump all the markets together. Or at best, they?ll talk about Japan versus everyone else. But I spent a large part of my trading career in Hong Kong, Singapore, Tokyo and other Asian financial capitals, and I can tell you that things are not nearly so simple.
As the head of Trading for BNP Paribas Asia, I executed the very first interest-rate swap in Singapore, and developed the options market in South Korea. I know the Asian markets inside and out, so it?s clear to me that there?s a dichotomy emerging between the economies of India and China on one side, and those of Thailand, Indonesia, Singapore and even Australia on the other side.
Inflation is a major problem in China and India, and both governments have been raising interest rates to keep prices down. This tighter monetary policy, combined with weakening domestic consumption and slowing demand for exports from the United States and Europe, means double-digit economic growth is a thing of the past.
I?m not saying that any of the other countries I mentioned are going to be posting double-digit GDP growth either. But institutional investors are extremely bullish on several of them, including Thailand. Hedge fund managers now expect that country to post 5.5% growth, versus the official estimate of 4.9%.
Either number would be a huge improvement from the 11% contraction Thailand experienced in the fourth quarter of last year. Unprecedented flooding was largely responsible for the slowdown, but clean-up operations and reconstruction have spurred a sharp rebound in activity.
The manufacturing sector is taking huge strides, growing an average of 28% a month in December and January. Meanwhile, tourism has returned to record levels, and private consumption is ticking up as well.
Going forward, we?re likely to see continued public spending by the government, combined with an increase in private investment. As a result, the hedge fund circles are expecting a V-shaped recovery. And without the need for the inflation-fighting measures that China and India have had to undertake, Thailand may actually outperform its larger rivals.
I?m Monty Agarwal for Uncommon Wisdom Daily. Thanks for watching.
Monty Agarwal has 15 years of experience as a portfolio manager in the hedge fund industry and has trained/managed traders at many Wall Street banks and hedge funds.
And as the editor of the Million-Dollar Rapid Growth Portfolio service here at Weiss, he uses the hedge fund world's best strategies to help his members make low-volatility, high-profit-potential moves in their own account.
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